Price Hikes Expected for '09

It sounds like marketing hype, but there really is no better time to shop than right now. Not in terms of the economic situation, of course. But in the long run, product pricing is at such a low point right now that there's nowhere else for it to go but up.

As mentioned in the previous post about the flat-panel market, these low, low prices simply can't continue in the interest of manufacturers, distributors, and retailers all looking to turn a profit and sustain a successful business operation. Not surprisingly, some Canadian manufacturers and distributors are already sending out perfectly-composed notices to dealers advising them that pricing will be increased next year due to the economy, and the current exchange rate. Some have added surcharges anywhere from 10-20% on products.


"Our expectation is that Canadian consumers will begin seeing higher prices at retail after the holiday season on many popular items," comments a representative for an audio/video manufacturer who asked not to be named. "All this means is there will be no better time to buy during the next few weeks, and that there is no more waiting any longer for the best deals."

Others have echoed this very statement, pointing to the fact that vendors have been "eating margins" lately just to keep price consistent. A spokesperson at a major digital camera manufacturer says he expects to see prices increase upwards of 20% on replacement cameras.

"Major categories are at thier lowest prices," confirms a spokesperson at Future Shop. "For example, pricing has dropped 17% for 40-inch TVs since September."

Indeed, I've seen evidence of manufacturers/distributors intending to increase prices by as much as 13% as of January '09.

One independent dealer claims that big-box stores have a "glut of inventory" that's resulting in the incredible price slides we're seeing in the marketplace right now.

"To combat this, retailers should try and hold the line with regards to pricing, and manufacturers should look at streamlining distribution to help the deflation of the perceived value of their products," he opines. "It’s easy to widen distribution when there are no issues with demand. With the decreased demand, production should be cut back, distribution tightened, and allow profits to flow. At this point, there is a state of panic that includes vendors sitting on too much inventory, big box stores doing the same, pricing sliding to zero, and the buying public listening to the media and simply not spending. If production decreases, and distribution decreases then perhaps there is a chance for the industry to weather the storm."

And weathering the storm is all we can hope for at this point. But the paradox we're in certainly doesn't make things easy on anyone, including the consumer. On the one hand, you should spend now because pricing, especially on big-ticket items, simply won't get any more attractive. But on the other, it's risky business to start handing out money frivolously when we're uncertain about just how long it will take for the economy to turn around. From a manufacturer and retailer perspective, they want you to buy now (how else can they get rid of this back up of inventory?) but they also want you to buy later when product is at a higher price. A healthy balance needs to be achieved. Right now, it's just a matter of figuring out how to accomplish one.

Pricing Wars Could Lead Discount TV Brands in the Dust

As the price of flat-panel TVs continues to come down to jaw-dropping levels, we're seeing signs that the value brands, which often managed to take a significant chunk of the pie because of their cost advantage, are now feeling the heat. Why? Because the name brands have reduced pricing to a point where they're often times actually in line with the value brands!

Research firm iSuppli reports that, during Black Friday weekend in the U.S., premium TV brands like Sony, Samsung, and LG, advertised pricing that was 23% lower than their average, while value brands like Vizio and Westinghouse reduced pricing by only 19%. Continuing on to today, Tina Tseng, an Analyst for the consumer electronics channels at iSuppli, says that the price differential between a 32" premium and value-branded LCD is just US$61. For an extra $60, would you opt for the brand name model over a lesser-known brand? Things probably won't be changing much any time soon either, as retailers scramble to move product during these difficult times.

So what does this mean? Will the value brands be obliterated by the premium models? On the flip side, however, how much money are the premium brands losing by selling products for prices that are essentially almost at cost? While the consumer comes out on the winning end of this stick, the business situation surely can't sustain itself like this for any great length of time.

It will be interesting to see how things pan out once the crazy pricing wars, not to mention the recession, come to an end. Stay tuned.

Discount Retailers Attempt to Take a Big Bite Out of CE Sales

Discount retailers are arguably profiting more, in some sense, from the downturn in the economy as shoppers flock to those stores known to always offer great "deals". So it comes as no surprise that many discount shops are attempting, more so than ever, to take a big bite out of the consumer electronics market this holiday season.

This weekend, I was surprised at the number of Wal-Mart commercials that aired (during my favourite primetime programs!) centred around flat-panel TVs, home theatre, and even Blu-ray. I'm used to seeing plenty of TV marketing dollars from the mammoth retailer, but of all product segments, I wouldn't peg Wal-Mart to be spending so much to plug things like Blu-ray and flat-panels. Kid's toys, home decor items, clothing, DVDs and CDs, yes. But big-ticket CE items? I'm genuinely surprised that so much of the marketing budget went toward this category. The move is a clear indication of one of two things: Wal-Mart is making its mark known as a CE retailer; and/or the retailer is responding to the prospect that home theatre is going to take over as the main activity of choice during these sad, economic times. And of course it goes without saying that one should

Aside from that, pricing is also mind-boggling. Right now, a name-brand 42" 1080p LCD is $950, and an up-converting DVD player is $50. (Interestingly, no Blu-ray players are featured on the Wal-Mart Canada Website, although Blu-ray discs are in abundance). At Costco, a 42" plasma is $860, and a Blu-ray player is $270. At retailers like Tiger Direct, pricing is relatively the same. A colleague told me this morning of a friend who just bought a 46" TV (name brand) for $800 over the weekend! If you can spare the cash and are in the market, now is certainly the time to buy a new TV!

But from a retailer perspective, what happens when these pricing wars continue? The same thing that has been happening for the entire year, even before the recession came into play: other retailers are forced to lower their prices; if not to be in line with discount stores, at least to be close. Products are sold off at almost no margin just so smaller companies can sustain themselves and make it through the storm. And more focus is placed on "added value" services, like free delivery, after-sales service, installation, and product expertise (certainly not a bad thing).

Still, it's an incredible observation overall knowing that just a few years ago, a plasma or LCD could not be had for less than a few grand. To put this in perspective, I searched for some old news stories on our sister Website, http://www.marketnews.ca/, and cam across this 2002 announcement from LG Electronics about the company's brand new plasma displays: the cheapest was $8,500, and the most expensive 60" model was a whopping $26,000: the price of a new car! My, how things have changed...

[Photo: Screen shot at http://www.walmart.ca/]

Black Friday Looked Promising

As online shoppers are clicking away at Cyber Monday, we're in good spirits since Black Friday actually turned out better than expected. A reported 172 million shoppers visited stores this weekend, up 25 million from last year! Even more impressive is that this number is significantly more than the 128 million people that the National Retail Federation (NRF) had originally anticipated would hit stores. So what made people come out with shopping guns-a-blazin' despite the current economy?

As they say, people can't resist a good bargain. And when times are tough, those who might not have bothered seeking out discounts before (the same people that often refuse to wait in line for anything) might just roll up their sleeves and get out with the rest of the deal-seekers. If you've been wanting to buy a new DVD player, winter wardrobe, or toys for the kids, this weekend was definitely the time to do it. In that respect, people probably felt they were better off shopping now and paying things back slowly than waiting until later and paying full price for the same thing.

Still, I surveyed a few people in the U.S. about whether or not they were going to head out to shop, and the responses varied greatly. One person told me that he couldn't bring himself to join the wolves, so to speak.

"I'm not desperate enough to line up at in a tent for a bargain," he said, noting, however, that there were tons of people camped out at his local Best Buy in tents from Thanksgiving night!

Another friend who had originally planned to go Black Friday shopping said she decided to "do her shopping from the web...like everyone else I know."

Meanwhile, a third person shopping in the heart of Manhatten, NYC, exclaimed quite frankly: "Recession? What recession???" It's safe to assume that the streets and stores were packed down there.

Granted, these are only a few personal accounts, but it appears that the situation, not surprisingly, varies from store to store, and city to city. The good news is that, overall, more people shopped, and spent more than they even did last year during this critical weekend. As for future outlook, of course we can't expect these numbers to keep up. The NRF is, however, sticking with its original prediction of a modest 2.2% increase in holiday sales for '08.

As for Canada, I haven't seen any definitive numbers. But a short visit to the Toronto Eaton Centre this weekend had me in shock: I have never seen that weekend destination mall so barren on a late November-early December weekend, and on a Sunday, to boot. Visiting Sherway Gardens shopper centre today for lunch, I was equally disappointed when I noticed that a fast food joint that had only been open for less than a month had already closed its doors. We're certainly up for some tough times ahead. Hopefully they won't last too far into '09.

Stay tuned for final numbers, including Cyber Monday online sales figures, once they become available.

Black Friday Update

A correspondent in Chicago reports to us that Black Friday line-ups in the downtown area are relatively thin. Photos above from the Northbrook Mall, taken shortly after opening at 8 a.m., show a moderate crowd in the Apple Store, but nothing to write home about. This is what an Apple Store in Toronto looks like on a normal day!

As for the "deals", we're told that, quote, "the marketing of the sale is better than the sale itself." Keep in mind that this might not hold true for every retailer in every U.S. city. But in this particular case, Black Friday "crowds" are a bit disappointing.

We're getting mixed messages from other sources: some stores appear flooded with shoppers trampling over one another...literally. In one Wal-Mart store in NYC, an unfortunate employee reportedly died due to the pushy crowds! (Though Wal-Mart only confirms that a "medical emergency" caused the retailer to close that store's doors). Some are claiming that it is in fact the bad economy that has forced them to come out and weather the crowds today: getting a "deal" might not have been so necessary before; but now, shoppers are willing to wait in long line-ups just to save a few bucks.

But other reports claim that retailers are cautious about how things will inevitably turn out. Even in shops with big crowds, people tend to be looking for that one fantastic deal, snagging it, and heading home versus prior years where they might have picked up a few extra items on the way to the check out.

Stay tuned for more information as it becomes available...

Happy Black Friday...Or is It?

As our neighbours south of the border roll out of bed with their bellies full of turkey and all the trimming, many will surprisingly still find the energy to get out there and shop today, known as Black Friday.

Historically, Black Friday, the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, is one of the busiest shopping days of the year, when retailers bring out the big guns, so to speak, with amazing deals and discounts. But it's more important than you might think, often determining a company's profitaiblity for the entire year. Some speculate that Black Friday could account for as much as 50% of a retailer's yearly profits! With the economy in the current state that it is, there's no doubt that many are crossing their fingers that shoppers will come, and that this year won't be a disappointment.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) has relatively high hopes for the day: while the organization is not expecting record-breaking numbers, it does anticipate a 2.2% growth in spending. Not exactly a very healthy increase (in fact, it's the lowest it has been in years), but it's better than one might expect given the financial crisis.

A preliminary NRF survey forecasts that up to 128 million people will be shopping today, and into the weekend. 49 million of these are definitely putting on their shopping shoes, while the remaining 79 million are waiting to see whether the "deals" are worth the trek into the city. Last year, 135 million people said they would go shopping on Black Friday weekend.

Interestingly, the NRF, like many other research companies, points to the falling gas prices as positively effecting the retail landscape. People perceive the savings on gas as some extra money in their pockets. Still, the defining factor on consumer's minds this weekend is price, price, price. So good deals are more important than ever.

"Shoppers who held off on buying a DVD player or winter coat over the last few months will find that prices may literally be too good to pass up," explains Tracy Mullin, President & CEO of the NRF.

Hopefully, Mullin is right.

It doesn't end on Sunday, though. Since the Web has become such a dominant force in the retail industry, the Monday following Black Friday has been coined "Cyber Monday", where at-home shoppers can take advantage of deals online. The advantage here is, of course, the ability to avoid the thrill and confusion of packed sales floors and long line-ups. Shop.org finds that more retailers will be offering Cyber Monday promotions this year than they did last year (83.7% vs. 72.2%).

Official Black Friday results won't be released until 4 p.m. this Sunday. But already, many local news outlets are reporting healthy turn-outs, with people waiting in lines from the early morning hours.

Still, we won't know how the retail industry has fared until the mass hysteria is over, the inventory has been accounted for, and the receipts tabulated. More than ever, this weekend is critical for the U.S. retail industry: it could, in many ways, make or break a retailer.

Black Friday, Holiday Shopping Looking Up...Considering

You've probably been bombarded with the words "economy", "downturn", and, (yikes!) "recession" over the past few months but, as Tracy Mullin, President & CEO of the National Retail Federation (NRF) puts it, "no one is canceling Christmas because money is tight." To the contrary, while customers will be tightening their belts a bit, they're still going to be out there shopping like they do every other year. They'll just be more mindful of snagging the best deals.

The NRF says that price will play by far the largest role in purchasing decisions this holiday season, with 40% of respondents to its Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey citing sales or promotions as what they'll be looking for. This year represents the smallest increase in planned spending: up just 1.9% to US$832.36 per person vs. $816.69 last year. But the number is still up, which is a positive sign.

Shoppers will likely cut back on gifts for the family, says the NRF, because they feel their family will "understand their current situation". Surprisingly, however, many will still make personal purchases, waiting until the holiday season to take advantage of the best deals. Overall, the NRF expects holiday spending to increase 2.2% to US$470.4 billion: not too shabby, considering.

As for Black Friday, which is one of the busiest shopping days of the year and scheduled to take place on Friday, November 28 (right after Thanksgiving), the NRF projects that shoppers will be gravitating more toward "personal and practical gifts" instead of big-ticket items this year. The Federation cites things like DVDs, CDs, and books as being most popular in the technology category (55.6%), followed by gaming consoles, Blu-ray players, and other like items (30%). (Funny enough, HD DVD players actually outsold Blu-ray players on Black Friday last year!)

Consumers will be changing one other thing this year: more will be opting to pay by cash instead of credit. But with good enough deals, they will fork over the dough.

Given the number of e-mail notifications I've received over the last few days about product price reductions, it appears that retailers (and manufacturers) are working hard to offer enticing enough deals to keep customers in the shops. Remember: if you don't shop while the economy is in a downturn, you'll only make it worse! (Some may call that female logic, but I digress).

In retrospect, it's eye-opening to think that at this time last year, retail prices were dropping drastically due to the strength of the Canadian dollar. Meanwhile this year, price drops are happening for a completely different, and opposite, reason. But on a positive note, it just goes to show that things happen in waves, and for every downside there's an up. I'm confident that holiday shopping will be just as hot this year as it was last; leading up to bigger and better years to come!

Happy Shopping!

Gift Cards Could Suffer From Economic Woes

I received an e-mail today - one of those forwarded chain notes I often get. It supplied a list of retail stores, and warned recipients not to purchase gift cards as Christmas presents from these companies because they have announced plans to close up shop by January 2009. This got me to thinking: will gift cards, a typically popular holiday gift, suffer in wake of the current economic climate?

An Ipsos Reid study conducted around Christmas-time last year found that 88% of respondents like receiving gift cards. In fact, 72% would rather a gift card than an actual gift! I don't think these numbers will drop this year simply due to fear that a store might close, but if e-mails like the one I received continue to circulate, it might just scare people off from buying gift cards.

The whole idea of a gift card is that the person can buy something they want. While it replaces an actual gift, what I've often found is that you end up spending more money than you otherwise would have with a gift card. Now if the recipient ends up getting nothing from the card because the company went out of business (a horrible experience: trust me, I've been there!), you've now both disappointed the person and lost a whack of money.

Will you be buying gift cards this year?

As an aside, I thought it funny that the most often-requested gift item I've heard over the past few months from family and friends is in fact a gift card, but of a specific kind: a gas card! You know times are tough when filling up your car becomes a luxury!

What Will They Think of Next?: Solid Gold USB Drive

What do you do when the economy is in the dumps? You spend money frivolously on things that you don't need. OK, so a USB flash drive is certainly a useful accessory to have. But would you spend $600 on one?

A company called Super Talent Technology has introduced a limited-edition 18-Carat, solid gold USB drive called the Pico-C that it deems the "ultimate executive gift". Sure, it has neat features like a water-resistant design, ample 8 GB capacity, encryption software, and support for 200x (30 MB/sec.) transfer speeds. But is the use of gold really worth the extra, oh, $550 you're spending on the gadget? Oh wait: it also comes with a serialized Certificate of Authenticity and black velvet jewelry box; and you can have your name/logo laser-etched onto the device at no additional charge. Now that changes everything! (Insert sarcasm here).

I apologize to those who think this is the coolest thing ever, but I just don't get it. Perhaps there will be plenty of gift-wrapped holiday USB drives under the trees of IT geeks everywhere. But I can't imagine any gal (or guy, for that matter!) opening up a box with a gold USB drive and declaring in awe to their loved one or boss: "oh my, you shouldn't have!"

Nevertheless, if you think you know someone who would like one, they're available by pre-order for a limited time, and require 3-4 weeks lead time.

Underestimating the Power of Secondary Features

Have you ever spent tons of money on a birthday or Christmas present for a young child, only to find that he/she is more fascinated with the box it came in? I've noticed a similar situation when it comes to high-tech products and the "average" consumer. Sometimes the feature that you just gloss over during your presentation, or worse, don't even mention, is one that's likely to pique the customer's interest.

This Father's Day was a case in point for me. We arrived at my parent's house, where my dad was overly enthusiastic about showing us a new discovery he made about his flat-panel TV and DVD player. When he puts in a music CD, the track titles come up on-screen, along with a standard play/pause menu, controlled via the remote. He had no idea, but absolutely loved the ability to pop in a CD, sit on the couch, and scroll through some tunes! My mom is planning a party with the girls next weekend, and she plans to set up her background music using this newly discovered method of theirs. Of course they don't really have any speakers, but let's take things one step at a time...

We often overlook simple functionality like the ability to play back CDs and control them using your TV. The same goes for features like being able to play back photos on the big-screen, or even connecting the TV to a computer and surfing the 'net using the flat-panel as an oversized monitor.

These hidden gem features go way beyond just TVs and DVD players. Lots of consumers don't know that you can use the same flash memory card in a digital camera that you can in an MP3 player or a digital camcorder, for instance. I'll bet lots of dads that received iPods this Father's Day (or Father's Days past) don't realize they can also play back photos and video on the device. Or what about that portable iPod dock? I'll bet many owners don't even know that they can connect other things, like a different portable player, speakers, or even a CD player attachment, to that nifty device using an AUX input on the back.

It's amazing how much we take for granted that the consumer knows. If you're selling technology products, learn to read the customer and gauge what features he/she might like, and might not care about. It doesn't hurt to say "did you know that this product X and can also do Y?" You might just be surprised at the response.

Visiting Akihabara in Japan

It's likely than when Eddy Grant was belting out the lyrics to the 80s tune Electric Avenue, he was thinking of Akihabara, a small town in Tokyo, Japan that serves as the destination for anything and everything electronic. OK, so he probably wasn't thinking of this high-tech area, but the Japanese do call it "Electric Town", clearly stated via a sign that greets you upon arrival. If you thought you've seen a lot of technology in one spot, I can almost guarantee that you haven't seen anything like Akihabara.

My first stop was a popular tourist shop called Laox. It looked pretty standard, with digital cameras, camcorders, and knick knacks occupying the relatively small space. No big deal - I see the same sorts of stores walking down Yonge St. in Toronto. Luckily, I was with someone who had visited before, and walked me to the back, where a discrete elevator opened to reveal the option of 6 other floors. Wow! They were all filled with knick-knacks that any tourist would like - fans, kimonos, playing cards, T-shirts, and the like. Moving over to a huge department store had me stopping in awe at the entrance to snap photos. The best way I could describe it would be 1,000 Best Buys or Wal-Marts jammed into one. Aisles upon aisles of electronics. Again, I found myself face to face with a sign that outlined 8 floors of goodies. One for gaming, one for home A/V, one for pretty much anything you might be looking for. To navigate just this one store would have easily taken a full day, and then some. One neat tidbit I learned from walking around? Japanese books actually open from the opposite side, so they're read back to front. Who knew.

I wish I had had more time to explore Akihabara, but my quick glimpse was definitely an interesting one. You probably won't be saving any money by purchasing something there versus in Canada or the U.S., nor will you find the stores filled with too many items that you can't find at home. And I can't fathom anyone shopping there as a regular destination spot. But the sheer magnitude of the area and the stores within it is eye-opening, and worth visiting at least once if you're ever in Japan.

I was really surprised to see how Westernized Tokyo has become. For every restaurant, shop, or street sign that appeared in Japanese, there was another one right beside it declaring the English translation. A short visit to a Macy's-like department store in the Shinzuku area (about a half hour subway ride from Akihabara) reminded me of any old department store in Toronto. Except instead of the standard "welcome" greeting, I received the same with an inviting Japanese smile.

It's important to note that the situation wasn't like this everywhere, such as in the Hot Springs hotel that we visited in Matsumoto where the majority of staff did not speak English, nor was there any (gasp) wireless Internet access. This was a nice change, though, as we were all able to truly appreciate the experience instead of pounding away on BlackBerries.

I can imagine that visiting Tokyo as a whole isn't quite as intimidating as it was 20 years ago. Thankfully in my case, the language barrier has been eased just a bit. Domo arigato!

Holiday Spending in Canada on the Rise?

The Canadian Press reports that, although final numbers aren't yet in, holiday spending in Canada looks to be up about 5% in comparison to last year. Fueled mainly by the baby boomer community, this means that sales in the consumer electronics category has been favourable. In fact, The Canadian Press cites certain Best Buy store locations as having topped $1 million in sales on just Boxing Day (December 26)!

Having walked into a Best Buy store on Boxing Day, I can attest to the pandemonium: there were line-ups a mile long at every cash register around the store, while customers were fighting one another to snag the best deals. By the weekend, line-ups to return or exchange merchandise (gifts that didn't quite fit the bill, perhaps?) were just as long.

It's great news that retail appears to be live and well in Canada, despite issues of cross-border shopping for perceived "better deals" in wake of the strong Canadian dollar. It's also encouraging given the increasing popularity of online shopping. It appears that, although many consumers are turning to the web to get their shopping done, it complements rather than replaces the in-store retail experience, with many still appreciating the face-to-face sale. When it comes to the holidays, even though you might have to wait in line for hours, bump shoulders with a hundred people on your way out the door, and endure the cold weather, snagging that great deal was probably worth it.

Happy New Year!

Boxing Day: What's Hot?

True to my word, I headed out to busy Yonge St. in downtown Toronto for some Boxing Day shopping. One thing's for sure: shopping still remains a very popular pasttime in Canada! Despite my earlier skepticism about the quality of "deals", there were in fact tons of great ones, and plenty of people out and about to take advantage of them.

Among the most noteworthy in the consumer electronics sector: selected DVDs for $5 and high-definition DVDs (both Blu-ray and HD DVD formats) for $20; and a whopping 1 TB external hard drive (from a reputable brand) for $200! Like we recently saw in the U.S., Toshiba's older version HD DVD player was available for $99 (they were all gone by the time I made it out to the stores). However, the HD DVD add-on player for the Xbox 360 was also available for $150 - $50 less than it's regular price, and it came bundled with a free HD DVD.

Of course, flat-panels were available for excellent prices, with many retailers advertising 42" models for just $1,000. Portable GPS devices were also "hot" items on holiday shoppers' wish lists.

The online arena was just as flooded with consumer traffic. In fact, Amazon.ca reported experiencing its busiest holiday season in five years! In DVD, the online retailer's best seller was Planet Earth: The Complete Series (no surprise, given that it was an Oprah pick); while Josh Groban's Christmas album Noel topped the music sales (kudos to Mr. Groban for managing to out-sell all other artists with a seasonal album!) Super Mario Galaxy for the Nintendo Wii topped gamer purchases; while Adobe Photoshop Elements 6.0 was the best-selling software.

Amazon's "most wished for" list echoed the purchases, although the Nintendo Wii console itself was the most coveted video gaming item; and Apple's Mac OS X Version 10.5 Leopard was the most desired piece of software.

As earlier predicted, most retailers will continue deals through to the end of the week. Enjoy!

[Photo courtesy of http://www.freedigitalphotos.net/].

Boxing Day: Is it all a Ploy?

I have become increasingly skeptical of Boxing Day "deals". Yet, for some odd reason, I still feel obligated to join the millions of others stampeding into the shopping mall on the 26th, waiting in line to get into a store they'd normally never shop at to save a few bucks on something they probably never would have purchased otherwise. Is it all worth it?

What about the so-called "deals"? The truth is that it really comes down to the specific store. Of course some will have real, cost-saving door-crasher specials that are worth trudging to the mall and fighting for a parking spot in three feet of snow to snag. But there are others who draw you in with huge signage and big promises only to offer a measly 10% off; and this is only after having first jacked the price tag up by 15%!

Even after purchasing an item at a fantastic deal, 'll often head over to the mall on the 27th or 28th and find the exact same deal still in effect. Why did I wait in line for 15 minutes to get this deal a few days ago, when I could have just come back?

Many retailers are honest about this, promoting the sale as "Boxing Week" rather than Boxing Day, if not for the customer's benefit, for their own. It pretty much says in a subtle, yet direct way, "Hey, you don't need to bombard me today - come back tomorrow...please!"

Nevertheless, I, like many others, feel the need to pop over to the mall on the 26th and make sure I'm not missing out on anything. Even though deep down I know the same deals will exist two days later, there's an air of tradition that requires that I put myself through torture, and support one of the biggest days in consumer culture.

Before you head out shopping, do your research (even if just anecdotal) and find out where the worthwhile savings are before you waste your time. Many retailers, like Future Shop and Best Buy, will not only hold in-store sales, but will also begin online sales as early as December 24, offering significant savings in limited quantities. And if you don't make it out on December 26, rest assured that, if history repeats itself, there will be "deals" of all kinds all week long.

Merry Christmas or Happy Holidays (should you celebrate another holiday) to you all!

[Photo courtesy of http://www.freedigitalphotos.net/].

More Black Friday/Holiday Shopping Results

Just when you thought you'd heard the last of Black Friday, the results are in! The National Retail Federation (NRF) reports that retail industry sales were up 5.1% during the month of November, and total retail sales were up 6.9% year-over-year. Topping the list was sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores (11.3%), as well as electronics (6.1%), and clothing and accessories (8.2%).

DisplaySearch, a division of NPD Group, claims that, in the technology sector, LCD TVs, GPS systems, digital photo frames, camera accessories, and digital SLRs sold well during the first week of the holiday shopping season. LCD TVs outsold plasmas, while HD DVD players outsold Blu-ray (although Blu-ray led in terms of revenue share). Notebook sales also increased by 29% compared to last year.

"Consumers started the holiday shopping season with a bang," enthused Rosalind Wells, the NRF's Chief Economist.

And December is also looking up, as Wells adds that consumers reported only having completed, on average, 36.4% of their total holiday shopping.

Looking even further forward to 2008, DisplaySearch V.P. of Industry Analysis Stephen Baker says that we'll see a stronger emphasis on bundles, add-ons, and accessories as retailers hustle to make profit rather than sell volume. This makes sense, given the rapid price drops we've seen in many product categories as of late, for reasons ranging from price erosion, to the strength of the Canadian dollar. Baker also says that more attention will be paid to added-value services, like customer support, and an overall positive in-store experience. We already see an emphasis on this, through retailers like Lowe's, which just entered the Canadian market with a major focus on offering an improved customer experience.

In addition to the "hot" tech items listed above, see a few other good gift ideas in a previous blog entry. Tech gifts overall are certainly in abundance - happy holiday shopping!

Retail Nightmares

Have you ever had a bad retail experience? It's unfortunate, but I'll bet that most everyone has, albeit some worse than others. Just look back to any old copy of Marketnews magazine, when the Secret Shopper was a regular column, and you'll see that the occasional bad retail experience is nothing new.

I had my own retail nightmare this weekend while holiday shopping, and thought I'd share it with you.

I proceeded to the checkout at a retailer (who shall remain un-named) with a few items that I was ready to purchase. There were two young teenage guys working the counter, and although the experience was a tad odd, I didn't really think much of it...until I got home and noticed that one item was missing. Coincidentally, an item that a young, teenage boy might covet. In hindsight, I realized what I believe to have happened:

When I arrived at check-out, one guy asked the other if he could ring this purchase in. That sounded a bit odd: why would you ask your co-worker to let you ring in a transaction? Especially when they both looked like they really weren't keen on working . In fact, one said something in small talk to the effect that it was "one of those days". I smirked, and told him I knew what he meant.

After I had paid, I heard something drop to the floor behind the counter. He looked down, then looked in my bag and said "let me make sure everything's in here", then said "yep", and handed it over with the obligatory "have a nice day". When I analyze the less than two-minute experience, I realize that I should have been more suspicious and re-checked my bags. Needless to say, it was very upsetting to find out, once I arrived home, that one particular item was missing.

Normally, although frustrated, I would have understood that accidents happen, especially during the busy holiday season. But given the circumstances and my suspicisions, I was livid. This was very likely no accident. I called the store and spoke with the manager, reciting to him what I believe went down. He was very nice about it, and said if I returned to the store, they'd gladly give me a fresh, new copy of the item in question. There was one problem: the mall I went to was very much out of my way: I had made the trek because I needed to visit a specific store, and wasn't prepared to trek back there for an item that I already paid for. He said there was no way I could pick it up at another location. After some discussion, he finally agreed to courier the product to me. I commend the way my complaint was handled; but I won't be writing any letters of thanks until the courier package actually arrives.

Meanwhile, I told the manager that, aside from the retrieval of my item, I thought it was also important to notify him of my suspicisions. After all, I'd want it to be brought to my attention if I could have thieves on my team! Innocent until proven guilty, as they say; but you won't know for sure unless you do something about it.

The moral of the story: if you ever have a feeling that something just isn't right, like you've been over-charged, or might be missing an item, don't hesitate to investigate before leaving the store. It isn't necessary to hold up a line while going over your receipt with a fine-tooth comb; but at least step to the side and run a quick check. This way, you can pop back in line if you spot a discrepancy and have it dealt with immediately.

As for me, I'm awaiting my courier package, and have faith that the manager will not go back on his word. If he doesn't, I'll certainly be giving him a call to thank him; and to find out whether he was able to track down the missing item in question. If he does go back on his word, well, I might just find myself on this particular retailer's customer nightmare story list!

Canadian Retailers, Manufacturers Continue to Drop Prices

By now, you're probably tired of reading story after story about the Canadian/U.S. dollar, but after weeding through my inbox this morning, I couldn't help but report on the topic.

Retailers like Sears, Wal-Mart, and Future Shop, have all made announcements that they have reduced prices in wake of the Canadian dollar. Wal-Mart is running radio commercials that discuss the rising Canadian dollar and the subsequent reduced store prices. Sears Canada even has a name for its marketing strategy: Stronger Dollar - Lower Prices.

I've done some comparisons myself, and I can attest to the fact that it isn't all B-S: some of the prices have indeed been cut such that they are in line with what the same product is selling for in the U.S. However, I can understand how consumers could be skeptical, judging each move as a mere marketing ploy.

My advice: do your research. With the existence of the Internet, it's pretty darned easy to see if a product is in fact being offered at the same value in Canada then it is in the U.S. Also, even if the price is a bit higher in Canada, don't automatically assume that you're getting hosed. Read the fine print to find out if there are added incentives to the purchase. Is there a longer warranty? Olympus Canada, for instance, just announced that it would be adding an extended warranty to the purchase of any of its digital SLRs (and lenses) in Canada at no additional charge. In fact, this announcement was made in conjunction with the company's announcement that it would be dropping Canadian prices! Another question to ask: are there favourable delivery options that would make purchasing in Canada a better deal? Sears Canada just announced that it would be offering free shipping on soft goods to any location in Canada. The bottom line: dig deeper before making a rash judgment call.

Meanwhile, retailers aren't the only ones taking steps to slash prices. When it comes to discrepancies in pricing between Canada and the U.S., digital cameras are one category of product that often experiences an unusually wide gap. Two manufacturers, Nikon and Olympus, have already made announcements that they would drop prices in Canada. Although Nikon said it could not offer price parity, the company said that the lower prices would still be "competitive". (Keep in mind, however, that, when it comes to the manufacturers, they are reducing their own suggested retail pricing: the actual sale price you'd see in the store is ultimately up to the retailers).

As for the Canadian dollar, it remains relatively on par with the U.S.: at last check, it was worth $0.99 U.S.

Cyber Monday Shoppers Go Wild

Cyber Monday is the Monday after the U.S. Thanksgiving long weekend, and is named as such because of shoppers' tendencies to head to their computers for some post-turkey online shopping. This year was no different, with a total of 72 million shoppers expected to have made online purchases that day (according to a study conducted on behalf of Shop.org, the Website that named the day "Cyber Monday"). This is up from 60.7 million in 2006, and 59 million in 2005. What I infer from these figures is one of two things: more people are shopping online, or more people are shopping period. Either way, the point is that more people are shopping.

Although "official" figures for Cyber Monday haven't yet been released, the National Retail Federation (NRF) says that CyberMonday.com, a Website that compiles promotions and deals from more than 550 online retailers, tracked three times more traffic by 1 p.m. in the afternoon on that day than it had in the previous year. That equated to more than one-million visitors in just the first 13 hours of the day!

Cyber Monday is such a hit in the U.S. that the NRF holds a Shop@Lunch event in Washington, DC, where workers can surf for the best deals while munching on some mid-day grub. This is probably a good idea, since the Shop.org survey (which was conducted by BIGresearch) discovered that 54.5% of workers with Internet access planned to shop from work. So hey, why not encourage them to do so on their lunch hour rather than using up valuable company time to find the latest Tickle Me Elmo for their nieces and nephews? Surprisingly, men were dubbed more likely to shop while at work than women (57.3% vs. 51.7%). Not surprisingly, young adults, aged 18-24, were the most likely to do so at 72.9%. This year, more than 200 people attended the Shop@Lunch event in Washington.

In addition to offering neat promotions and deals, 24.7% of online sites offered free shipping for orders placed on Cyber Monday. As mentioned in a previous blog entry, 72.2% of online retailers planned some sort of promotion for the day, up from just 42.7% in 2005.

When shopping becomes an organized event at work, you know that the industry is on to something big.

[Photo: A few office workers attempt to snag the best online deals while attending the Shop@Lunch event that took place in Washington, DC on Cyber Monday: November 26.]

Results are in for Black Friday: Less Money, But More Shoppers

There's likely one question on everyone's mind this Cyber Monday: how did the Black Friday shopping extravaganza pan out in the U.S? Aside from playing a large part in U.S. retailer revenue for the year and holiday season, Black Friday provides a glimpse into what the year's holiday shopping season might be like overall. According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), the number of shoppers during the Black Friday weekend was up 4.8% to 147 million; but dollars per shopper were down 3.5% to US$347.44.

This isn't necessarily a bad thing. What it means is that there were more people shopping for smaller-ticket items rather than large purchases. Not to mention that the average selling price of many high-ticket items (especially flat-panel TVs) has dropped considerably since last year.

NRF President Tracy Mullin says that hot items this Black Friday were things like digital photo frames, laptops, and cashmere sweaters. Last year, the coveted items were higher-ticket buys, like high-definition TVs. Perhaps consumers have a more giving nature this season, having purchased something for themselves last year. This year, men shopped more than women, outspending them at $393.63 vs. $303.95.

Encouragingly, consumer electronics items accounted for 35.7% of the purchases. Books, CDs, DVDs, videos, or video games accounted for 41.7%. This will likely contribute to a welcome upsurge in final sales numbers for the CD and DVD market, which has been plagued by piracy and counterfeit materials for years. The most popular items included clothing and accessories at 46.8%. Other "hot" shopping items were toys (28.2%) and gift cards (21%).

Sales also started earlier this year, as more stores decided to open at midnight (and even earlier!) The strategy seemed to work, as 14.3% of consumers left the house to shop prior to 4 a.m.; up from 12.4% last year.

"Knowing that consumers would be challenged by the current economic environment, retailers hoped that higher traffic would offset lower individual spending, which it did," explained Phil Rist, Vice President of Strategy for BIGresearch, which conducted the poll for NRF. "...The holiday season is off to a good start."

Although discount stores led the pack, snagging 55.1% of the shoppers, it was nice to see that specialty retailers came in second at 43.2%. Traditional department stores received 38.7% of the traffic, while Websites welcomed 31.6%.

Today, nicknamed "Cyber Monday", will extend the deals to the Web, and will contribute more sales to the bottom line of what looks to be a positive holiday shopping season. Although NRF is still sticking to its estimation of a 4% rise in holiday sales this year, Mullin advises that final holiday shopping results won't be available until the last two weeks of December. Stay tuned.

Black Friday Update

According to the National Retail Federation (NRF) there isn't much to report just yet about Black Friday: it turns out no "preliminary" results will be released at all (they used that term mistakenly). But I did promise to follow up once the statement was made, so here it is.

NRF had previously projected that sales would rise 4% when compared to last year, for a total of US$474.5 billion, and is sticking with that estimated figure thus far. NRF spokesperson Scott Krugman tells me that final Black Friday results won't be released until Sunday, November 25.

For now, what we do know is that the best deals were found on electronics (especially flat-panel TVs), jewelry, clothing, and toys. But discounts were also being offered on small-ticket items that are ideal for gift-giving, like digital photo frames, hand mixers, and sterling silver jewelry.

"While many of these items will remain popular during the holiday season," said NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin, "there is strong interest in them today simply because the prices are irresistible."

To pass up turkey and stuffing for long lines in freezing weather (especially in cities like New York where it felt like -2 at midnight!), the deals must be pretty darned irresistible, indeed!

In the online arena, NRF says that 72.2% of retailers plan a special promotion for what's known as "Cyber Monday", which is a drastic increase from the 42.7% just two short years ago.

Happy shopping to our neighbours to the south!