Black Friday Looked Promising

As online shoppers are clicking away at Cyber Monday, we're in good spirits since Black Friday actually turned out better than expected. A reported 172 million shoppers visited stores this weekend, up 25 million from last year! Even more impressive is that this number is significantly more than the 128 million people that the National Retail Federation (NRF) had originally anticipated would hit stores. So what made people come out with shopping guns-a-blazin' despite the current economy?

As they say, people can't resist a good bargain. And when times are tough, those who might not have bothered seeking out discounts before (the same people that often refuse to wait in line for anything) might just roll up their sleeves and get out with the rest of the deal-seekers. If you've been wanting to buy a new DVD player, winter wardrobe, or toys for the kids, this weekend was definitely the time to do it. In that respect, people probably felt they were better off shopping now and paying things back slowly than waiting until later and paying full price for the same thing.

Still, I surveyed a few people in the U.S. about whether or not they were going to head out to shop, and the responses varied greatly. One person told me that he couldn't bring himself to join the wolves, so to speak.

"I'm not desperate enough to line up at in a tent for a bargain," he said, noting, however, that there were tons of people camped out at his local Best Buy in tents from Thanksgiving night!

Another friend who had originally planned to go Black Friday shopping said she decided to "do her shopping from the web...like everyone else I know."

Meanwhile, a third person shopping in the heart of Manhatten, NYC, exclaimed quite frankly: "Recession? What recession???" It's safe to assume that the streets and stores were packed down there.

Granted, these are only a few personal accounts, but it appears that the situation, not surprisingly, varies from store to store, and city to city. The good news is that, overall, more people shopped, and spent more than they even did last year during this critical weekend. As for future outlook, of course we can't expect these numbers to keep up. The NRF is, however, sticking with its original prediction of a modest 2.2% increase in holiday sales for '08.

As for Canada, I haven't seen any definitive numbers. But a short visit to the Toronto Eaton Centre this weekend had me in shock: I have never seen that weekend destination mall so barren on a late November-early December weekend, and on a Sunday, to boot. Visiting Sherway Gardens shopper centre today for lunch, I was equally disappointed when I noticed that a fast food joint that had only been open for less than a month had already closed its doors. We're certainly up for some tough times ahead. Hopefully they won't last too far into '09.

Stay tuned for final numbers, including Cyber Monday online sales figures, once they become available.

Happy Black Friday...Or is It?

As our neighbours south of the border roll out of bed with their bellies full of turkey and all the trimming, many will surprisingly still find the energy to get out there and shop today, known as Black Friday.

Historically, Black Friday, the day after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday, is one of the busiest shopping days of the year, when retailers bring out the big guns, so to speak, with amazing deals and discounts. But it's more important than you might think, often determining a company's profitaiblity for the entire year. Some speculate that Black Friday could account for as much as 50% of a retailer's yearly profits! With the economy in the current state that it is, there's no doubt that many are crossing their fingers that shoppers will come, and that this year won't be a disappointment.

The National Retail Federation (NRF) has relatively high hopes for the day: while the organization is not expecting record-breaking numbers, it does anticipate a 2.2% growth in spending. Not exactly a very healthy increase (in fact, it's the lowest it has been in years), but it's better than one might expect given the financial crisis.

A preliminary NRF survey forecasts that up to 128 million people will be shopping today, and into the weekend. 49 million of these are definitely putting on their shopping shoes, while the remaining 79 million are waiting to see whether the "deals" are worth the trek into the city. Last year, 135 million people said they would go shopping on Black Friday weekend.

Interestingly, the NRF, like many other research companies, points to the falling gas prices as positively effecting the retail landscape. People perceive the savings on gas as some extra money in their pockets. Still, the defining factor on consumer's minds this weekend is price, price, price. So good deals are more important than ever.

"Shoppers who held off on buying a DVD player or winter coat over the last few months will find that prices may literally be too good to pass up," explains Tracy Mullin, President & CEO of the NRF.

Hopefully, Mullin is right.

It doesn't end on Sunday, though. Since the Web has become such a dominant force in the retail industry, the Monday following Black Friday has been coined "Cyber Monday", where at-home shoppers can take advantage of deals online. The advantage here is, of course, the ability to avoid the thrill and confusion of packed sales floors and long line-ups. Shop.org finds that more retailers will be offering Cyber Monday promotions this year than they did last year (83.7% vs. 72.2%).

Official Black Friday results won't be released until 4 p.m. this Sunday. But already, many local news outlets are reporting healthy turn-outs, with people waiting in lines from the early morning hours.

Still, we won't know how the retail industry has fared until the mass hysteria is over, the inventory has been accounted for, and the receipts tabulated. More than ever, this weekend is critical for the U.S. retail industry: it could, in many ways, make or break a retailer.

Can Vegas Sustain Another CES?

Trade shows, especially in the technology industry, often gravitate to the grand city of Las Vegas. Why? The location is always upbeat, the space accommodating, and the area fairly central to most. But anyone that's traveled to an event there over the past few years knows that the costs are also exponential, and only getting larger. If you go to Vegas for a show like CES, you're liable to pay upwards of $300/night for a hotel room that would normally run for half that. A good meal is tough to find for a reasonable price (although plenty of fantastic meals are to be had if you're willing to fork over the dough for them!) And drinks? You're lucky to find anything, and I mean anything with even just a drop of alcohol for less than $10. But with the economy in the state that it's currently in, will Vegas be able to keep up its perceived price gouging of trade show-goers?

The next massive show to arrive in Sin City is indeed CES this January. At this year's CEDIA EXPO, which took place in Denver, CO, many were rumbling that CES would be jumping ship to another city once its contract was up. The reason? Pricing was getting ridiculous in that great city known as Lost Wages. Some claimed that this wasn't entirely true: the CEA was just bluffing in an effort to get Vegas to wake up to the incredible loss the city would experience if events companies started moving their business elsewhere. Neither of these rumours have ever been substantiated, but we have seen evidence that Las Vegas definitely needs to, and might already be, waking up to the effects economic uncertainty can have.

Visit the official CES Website (http://www.cesweb.org/), for instance, and you'll see a ton of hotels highlighted in bright yellow, signifying that they're offering reduced rates for show attendees. The most dramatic is the Excalibur, where a room that was $219 has now been reduced to just $141.

Aside from the show, the downturn the city is suffering from is becoming quite apparent. According to the Las Vegas Meetings and Travel Website from the Conventions and Visitors Authority, the number of visitors during the month of September was down 10.1% when compared to September 2007. In August, visitors were down 4.3%. The number of attendees at conferences was down 10% in Sept. and a whopping 22.3% in August; while the number of conferences actually held during those months was down 17.9% and 7.2%, respectively when compared to the prior year. Airline passengers arriving to or leaving from Vegas was also down: 9.9% in August and 13.2% in September. On average, all of the aforementioned figures were down at least 4% throughout the entire year of 2008 when compared to '07.

Meanwhile, even the gamblers are pinching their pennies. A recent Reuters report indicates that Vegas gambling is down for the ninth month in a row, while the take for casinos has dropped US$58 million from one year ago to an astonishing US$1 billion! Company shares on the stock market are also plummeting: Las Vegas Sands Corp. dropped from US$122 to just US$6; MGM Mirage from US$93 to US$11; and Wynn Resorts Ltd. from US$139 to under US$44.

While you won't see relevant companies opting out of attending CES this year altogether, you will see a cut back in the number of employees going down to the show. This means fewer flights, fewer dollars acquired from hotel room bookings, fewer dollars spent gambling, and fewer food and drink sales. Booths at the show will likely remain as big and flashy as they always are, but it's very possible that companies will be scaling back on even booth space as they consider bookings for next year's show.

What does this mean? The city of Las Vegas should really be pro-active in addressing all of these concerns, for both visitors and potential business partners that are looking to hold their conventions, events, and parties there. CES isn't moving to another location just yet, and has never announced that it is looking to do so either. But everything could tumble like a deck of cards if Vegas doesn't start proving itself a worthy, and reasonably-priced, home for convention-holders and goers to spend their money.

[Photo: Las Vegas News Bureau (LVCVA)].

Recession, or Minor Setback?

Aside from the pending election, the biggest buzz nowadays is about the existence (or perceived existence) of a "recession". But are things really that bad north of the border here in Canada? Many would beg to differ.

An interesting article in the National Post written by Jacqueline Thorpe and Paul Vieira quotes the governor of the Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, as stating that the "sky is not falling" in this country, adding that while we should prepare for "sluggish growth", we do not "have the imbalances in our economy that other economies have going into this time of difficulty."

This shouldn't be taken to mean that Canadians will skate through this time completely unaffected. Companies will need to scale back certain niceties, and make minor adjustments until the situation blows over (and let's face it: it will blow over eventually). But the important thing is to remain as close as possible to "business as usual". After all, when things get back to what many would call "normal", it'll be those who kept their head high through the tough times that benefit the most.

What's more, many are confident that the tech sector specifically is somewhat "recession-proof", if not at least recession-"resistant". TWICE Magazine claims that U.S. TV manufacturers are "cautiously optimistic" that sales will continue to be strong through the upcoming holiday season, despite what's going on in the economy.

The reason is obvious: if you cut costs by not eating out, going shopping, or heading out to see a movie, what do you do? Stay at home! You can take the kids out for dinner and a movie every Friday night, or invest in a home theatre system (and some Ben & Jerrys!) at home that can be enjoyed for years and years to come instead of just one night. As research firm Futuresource Consulting puts it, these items offer much better "value-for-money", along with "tangible benefits." On the TV end, the only cut-back Futuresource has observed is in size: it seems that rather than fork over the extra dough for 50"+-sized panels, customers appear to be, more often than before, opting for 32" and 42" sets instead.

The optimism doesn't just relate to the TV industry, though. It also goes for computer-related products, and even video games. Sure, it isn't healthy to stay seated on the couch every weekend just because you don't want to go out and spend money. But why not watch TV while on the treadmill? Or play some Nintendo Wii games with the family instead of heading out to Chuck E Cheese? Bottom line: there is a way that consumers can reduce frivolous spending that can also benefit the CE industry.

Nevertheless, retailers, manufacturers, and distributors are, and will continue to do what they have to do in order to be cautious and remain profitable. I've seen several e-mail notifications that advise of price increases due to the "falling Canadian currency", or that regretfully announce the cessation of certain incentive programs for the time being. C'est la vie, as they say. But the most important thing to consider is to keep your business strong by whatever means necessary. Otherwise, you'll be eating everyone else's dust once things pick up again.